Worst is yet to come
World economies started to re opening and gradually they are trying to go back to pre covid 19 situations. Slowly many countries are relaxing lock down norms and opening their factories. Some countries such as UAE started opening their Malls as well. However according to me and many analysts in market, we have still not seen the worst. While some countries are relaxing lock down in phase manners. India & other countries are still not able to flatten the curve.
We will certainly relaxation in lock down after May. While these relaxations are mandatory now as many countries have no choice but to open for business. This could lead to second wave of virus cases. We may see even more severe cases once second wave hits.
We did not even discuss economic disasters yet. While world went in lock down mode in March. Real outcome & repercussion of this lock down will be visible from July. Many companies will start posting how they did in second quarter. Many companies may shut or file for bankruptcy. Many may go for job cuts as well.
In US nearly 38 million americans already filed for unemployment claims. In may beginning unemployment rate was 14.5%. Job numbers are due next week which can be from 15% to 19%. Real depression had unemployment rate of 24.9% and we are not far from those numbers.
Germany & UK already entered in recession while many countries will join the recession in upcoming months. Now main question will be, is there a recession in 2020 or depression. We might get very near to depression and it will be devastating in today’s time. So again worst is yet to come.
There is a silver lining in all this chaos. The gold price, gold will be one of the beneficiary in this economic recession. We may see many good high jumps and big swings in upcoming months. Currently gold is trading near 1720$. According to fundamental analysis we may see 1900$ – 2000$ by next June or July. These targets may come even early while downside is limited. I will cover this in upcoming posts.
Conclusion: Brace for more impact and get ready for worse recession than 2008.
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