Gold outlook 2018
Gold is trading in 200-250$ range since 2 years , It made low of 1045$ in late 2015 and high of 1375$ in 2016 . We were unable to break high of 1375$ as highest point was 1307$ in gold last week . If we break 1307$ in January and manage to close above this key hurdle , then we may expect good recovery and new highs of approx 1330$ and even near 1375 . Major fresh buying may start once we close above 1375$ .
In 2017 we had three rate hikes from FOMC and we may see 3-4 more hikes in 2018 as well . ECB is playing cautiously as they are just waiting and watching Federal reserve to hikes the rate . Major cycle may start once ECB starts hiking interest rate . US dollar came under pressure in late december when inflation numbers came .
Main key levels would be 1230$ and 1375$ in gold , close below or above these levels will decide the yearly trend and may enable to gold price move 100-200$ in either directions .
After taking Geo political scenario and North Korea’s rising tension we would bet with buy in dips strategy this year while maintaining a stoploss below 1230$ . We may eye gold price to test 1400$ – 1500$ in upcoming months considering all facts .
US Equity Market outlook 2018
Dow Jones Industrial Average gained astonishing more than 25% in 2017 surpassing all predictions and hitting every seller stoploss . It gave 70 new record highs surpassing previous record of 1995 which had 69 record highs . Even S&P gained nearly 20% closed above 2675 solid resistance hinting more power and good hold in 2018 .
Its hard to expect again 25% growth on Dow Jones this year but numbers seems pretty good . Even 20% correction from here would result nearly 20K in Dow which is levels of 2016 ending . There may be some correction but Apocalypse type of fall doesn’t seem on sight for now .
Yearly support for this year stands at 22170 which stands on 10% approx correction from here . If Dow Jones manage to break and close below this support then expect more pressure upto 21000 – 20000 .
Expect a good hurdle on yearly chart stands at 25910 , If traders breaks this major hurdle and manage to close above our hurdle . Then expect more firepower upto 27000 – 27800 .
Expect some correction this year as market has already fired up so much but not expecting any major recession atleast this year .
Bitcoin outlook 2018
2017 was Bitcoin’s year no doubt , Merely adding block chain in a company’s name boosted company’s market share and many companies benefited from this . Bitcoin tested 20000$ but closed nearly 14000$ after a good sell off within days . Bitcoin gave unbelievable return of 1400% . In 2018 we may not see 1400% return in Bitcoin but it seems cryptocurrencies are here to stay be it Ripple or Litecoin . We are seeing actions from all over the world on cryptocurrencies yet Bitcoin leading the gains and not minding any hurdle coming in its way .
We believe Bitcoin may test 8000$ this year and its fairly valued at 8000$ . If traders breaks this major base and manage to close below our support . Then expect good pressure on this cryptocurrency upto 6000$ – 4500$ .
A good hurdle stands at 20000$ , if traders take this hurdle out and manage to close above our resistance , then expect upto 22000$ – 24000$ .
Bitcoin is highly volatile cryptocurrency , 15-20% daily movement is routine for this . We believe 2018 would give it more stability and it might reduce its range from 15-20% to 5-10% which would work in favor of all cryptocurrencies specially for Bitcoin .
More will update in daily forecast and analysis .
Happy New year .